Public trading strategy
Bitcoin's biggest backer threatens to sell — short MSTR as the BTC floor cracks
Created
Thesis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) built its entire strategy around buying Bitcoin, but news broke they may sell up to $1.25B of it. If the largest corporate buyer turns into a seller, it removes the key floor under the stock. Meanwhile, record $4B ETF outflows show large investors are already fleeing Bitcoin, and the options market is loaded with bearish bets. This combination of a large forced seller and waning institutional demand spells trouble for MSTR, which trades at a huge premium to its Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSTR on D1 when MSTR underperforms BTC by >3% over a rolling 5-day window AND BTC is within 5% of its 52-week low, with a 21-day max hold, a 7% stop loss on MSTR, and a 15% profit target.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
2 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (5) above -3 — met
- Price below 5 — far
- Price above SMA (252) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
MSTR · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (5) above -3 — met
- Price below 5 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 15.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 252
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5878
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5878,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 252
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 252
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5878
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5878,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin's biggest backer threatens to sell — short MSTR as the BTC floor cracks'. Thesis: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) built its entire strategy around buying Bitcoin, but news broke they may sell up to $1.25B of it. If the largest corporate buyer turns into a seller, it removes the key floor under the stock. Meanwhile, record $4B ETF outflows show large investors are already fleeing Bitcoin, and the options market is loaded with bearish bets. This combination of a large forced seller and waning institutional demand spells trouble for MSTR, which trades at a huge premium to its Bitcoin holdings.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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