Iran ceasefire collapses, oil supply squeezed — long defense contractors

Thesis

The collapse of the Iran ceasefire immediately triggered a 5%+ surge in oil prices, while simultaneously pushing investors into defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. Usually, a single geopolitical event might cause a short-lived pop, but this situation is compounded by the fact that Russia has simultaneously banned diesel exports due to Ukrainian refinery attacks. We are looking at a dual-shock to global energy supply, which strategists like Ed Yardeni note could reignite inflation. This creates a perfect storm for defense contractors, as military engagement risks escalate while high energy prices keep defense budgets highly funded.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters long LMT, NOC, and RTX on D1 when WTI crude oil (CL=F) gains >3% in a single session. Hold for 21 days maximum. Exit if WTI drops 5% from its peak entry value or if the position hits a 7% profit target.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated 2026-09-04 06:33 UTC. This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

• Entry: Single-session oil surge long (USO@1d) (1 condition)
• Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
• Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
• Exit: Time stop at 21 days (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 3
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "Single-session oil surge long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.4751666666666665
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.950333333333333
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 21
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Time stop at 21 days",
      "priority": 90,
      "purpose": "invalidation"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.4751666666666665,
      "support_stop_rank": 1,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 2
}

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "roc",
      "period": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 3
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "Single-session oil surge long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.4751666666666665
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.950333333333333
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 21
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Time stop at 21 days",
      "priority": 90,
      "purpose": "invalidation"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.4751666666666665,
      "support_stop_rank": 1,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 2
}

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Iran ceasefire collapses, oil supply squeezed — long defense contractors'. Thesis: The collapse of the Iran ceasefire immediately triggered a 5%+ surge in oil prices, while simultaneously pushing investors into defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. Usually, a single geopolitical event might cause a short-lived pop, but this situation is compounded by the fact that Russia has simultaneously banned diesel exports due to Ukrainian refinery attacks. We are looking at a dual-shock to global energy supply, which strategists like Ed Yardeni note could reignite inflation. This creates a perfect storm for defense contractors, as military engagement risks escalate while high energy prices keep defense budgets highly funded.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

• The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
• Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
• No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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