Public trading strategy
FXY Confirmed Breakdown Fade Strategy
Created
Thesis
The Bank of Japan raised rates by a quarter point to 1.25%, but the split vote told markets the hike was a close call, not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle — so the yen actually dropped about half a percent. When a currency weakens on good news, it usually keeps bleeding until something changes. That makes the yen a candidate to fade (bet against) on any bounce, since the interest-rate gap between the US and Japan still favors holding dollars.
Strategy approach
The Bank of Japan raised rates by a quarter point to 1.25%, but the split vote told markets the hike was a close call, not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle — so the yen actually dropped about half a percent. When a currency weakens on good news, it usually keeps bleeding until something changes. That makes the yen a candidate to fade (bet against) on any bounce, since the interest-rate gap between the US and Japan still favors holding dollars. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing, implied_volatility_expected_move, theta, breakeven_payoff, maximum_loss, liquidity_spread_volatility, simpler_alternatives.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
FXY · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- EMA (9) below EMA (21) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Downside Range Break Short (FXY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop: Exit After 45 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Close Back Above Broken Range (FXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Scale Out: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Downside Range Break Short (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: Exit After 45 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Back Above Broken Range (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Scale Out: Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Downside Range Break Short (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: Exit After 45 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Back Above Broken Range (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Scale Out: Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The Bank of Japan raised rates by a quarter point to 1.25%, but the split vote told markets the hike was a close call, not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle — so the yen actually dropped about half a percent. When a currency weakens on good news'. Thesis: The Bank of Japan raised rates by a quarter point to 1.25%, but the split vote told markets the hike was a close call, not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle — so the yen actually dropped about half a percent. When a currency weakens on good news, it usually keeps bleeding until something changes. That makes the yen a candidate to fade (bet against) on any bounce, since the interest-rate gap between the US and Japan still favors holding dollars.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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