Public trading strategy
Trump backs off Fed and inflation hope emerges — small caps ready to rip on rate
Created
Thesis
Small caps are already on pace for their best first half since 1991 — they thrive when rate-cut expectations build because their borrowing costs are more sensitive to policy shifts. Trump easing pressure on Fed Chair Warsh, combined with Goolsbee seeing 'glimmers of hope' in inflation data, suggests the political pressure for rate cuts may actually translate into a more accommodative Fed. Small caps don't need rates to actually drop — they just need the market to believe cuts are coming. The combination of strong small-cap momentum plus a friendlier Fed signal is a tailwind that could extend the rally.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy on D1 timeframe. Entry: long IWM when it closes at a 20-day high AND the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) has dropped 10 basis points over the prior 5 sessions. Exit: IWM closes below its 20-day EMA, or 30 trading day max hold. Filter: only enter if IWM's 50-day SMA slope is positive.
Markets and timeframes
IWMD1
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
IWM · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
- SMA (50) above Price — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- ROC (5) above 0.5 — far
- Price below EMA (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/SMA/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (IWM@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "IWM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7393666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4787333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7393666666666667,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "IWM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7393666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4787333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7393666666666667,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Trump backs off Fed and inflation hope emerges — small caps ready to rip on rate cut hopes'. Thesis: Small caps are already on pace for their best first half since 1991 — they thrive when rate-cut expectations build because their borrowing costs are more sensitive to policy shifts. Trump easing pressure on Fed Chair Warsh, combined with Goolsbee seeing 'glimmers of hope' in inflation data, suggests the political pressure for rate cuts may actually translate into a more accommodative Fed. Small caps don't need rates to actually drop — they just need the market to believe cuts are coming. The combination of strong small-cap momentum plus a friendlier Fed signal is a tailwind that could extend the rally.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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