Public trading strategy
Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — time to load up on long-term bonds
Created
Thesis
The economy added barely half the jobs expected in June, signaling a rapid cooling in the labor market. Because the Federal Reserve uses job strength to justify raising interest rates, this weak report effectively takes the threat of higher rates off the table. We can see markets immediately pricing this in: Treasury bonds just had a massive rally as traders scaled back their rate-hike bets. When interest rates stop climbing or start falling, the bonds you already hold become more valuable. Buying long-dated Treasury ETFs captures this shift and pays you to wait if the economy continues to slow.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long TLT on D1 when the 10-year Treasury yield drops 0.10% (10 basis points) in a single day following a major macroeconomic data release. Exit if the 10-year yield rises back above its 20-day simple moving average. Use a 10% trailing stop and a 60-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -0.25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7545333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.509066666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.7545333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -0.25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7545333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.509066666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.7545333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — time to load up on long-term bonds'. Thesis: The economy added barely half the jobs expected in June, signaling a rapid cooling in the labor market. Because the Federal Reserve uses job strength to justify raising interest rates, this weak report effectively takes the threat of higher rates off the table. We can see markets immediately pricing this in: Treasury bonds just had a massive rally as traders scaled back their rate-hike bets. When interest rates stop climbing or start falling, the bonds you already hold become more valuable. Buying long-dated Treasury ETFs captures this shift and pays you to wait if the economy continues to slow.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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