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Public trading strategy

US caps China tariffs at 20% and chip shares are already rising — ride the trade

Created

Thesis

A tariff cap at 20% is essentially a negotiated truce ceiling — it removes the tail risk of an escalating trade war that has haunted chip stocks with China supply chain exposure. Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's dominant contract chipmaker, is already drawing bullish analyst attention for its latest strategic moves. If tariff fears were holding these stocks back, a credible cap removes a major overhang and frees them to re-rate higher on their fundamentals.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters long TSM on D1 when the 14-day ATR is declining (falling uncertainty) and the stock closes above its 10-day EMA. Exit on a close below the 20-day EMA or a 6% stop loss. Max hold 15 trading days.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

ASML · 1d

0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (10) — far
  • ATR (14) below SMA (5) — unknown
  • Price below EMA (10) — met

SMH · 1d

0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (10) — near
  • ATR (14) below SMA (5) — unknown
  • Price below EMA (10) — met

TSM · 1d

0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (10) — near
  • ATR (14) below SMA (5) — unknown
  • Price below EMA (10) — met

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (TSM@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (ASML@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (SMH@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 5
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
      "name": "EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 5
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_asml",
      "name": "EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 5
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_smh",
      "name": "EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_tsm",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_asml",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_smh",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_tsm",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_asml",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_smh",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 98,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_tsm",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_asml",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_smh",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.4123809523809525
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.824761904761905
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "long",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_tsm",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "long",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_asml",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "long",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_smh",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "fib_stop_ratio": 618,
      "risk_percent": 2.4123809523809525,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "atr",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "atr",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "atr",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 5
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 5
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
      "name": "EMA/ATR/SMA Signal Long (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
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  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'US caps China tariffs at 20% and chip shares are already rising — ride the trade-war relief rally in TSMC'. Thesis: A tariff cap at 20% is essentially a negotiated truce ceiling — it removes the tail risk of an escalating trade war that has haunted chip stocks with China supply chain exposure. Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's dominant contract chipmaker, is already drawing bullish analyst attention for its latest strategic moves. If tariff fears were holding these stocks back, a credible cap removes a major overhang and frees them to re-rate higher on their fundamentals.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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