Public trading strategy
Peace talks progress and Kuwait floods the market with oil — bet against energy
Thesis
Oil prices spiked because of the Iran war, but peace talks are now advancing. Kuwait offering oil to Asia for the first time since the war started proves the physical oil market is loosening up. If a peace deal is reached, the 'war premium' built into energy stocks will rapidly deflate, making a bet against energy producers a timely move.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short XLE on the daily timeframe when the RSI(14) drops below 60 and the price closes below the 5-day EMA. Set a stop loss just above the recent swing high, with a max hold of 10 days.