Public trading strategy
Middle East tanker attack pushes oil higher while Japan's currency collapses — l
Created
Thesis
A tanker carrying Qatari crude was hit in the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran hostilities flare up, which immediately disrupted shipping and pushed oil prices higher. This geopolitical instability combines dangerously with historic currency weakness: the Japanese yen just fell to its lowest level since 1986. Because Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy, paying for oil in weak yen creates a punishing inflationary spiral. By connecting the Middle East supply disruption with Japan's currency collapse, the thesis is that energy prices will stay structurally elevated as geopolitical risk premiums rise while importing nations suffer crippling costs. Long US-based energy ETFs captures the upward momentum in oil prices driven by these dual forces.
Strategy approach
Create a momentum strategy on the W1 timeframe that enters long XLE or USO when front-month WTI crude oil prices increase by 5% over a two-week period while USD/JPY is simultaneously trading at a multi-year high, exiting if oil prices drop 5% off the peak or after a 4-week hold period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
USO · 1w
No entry condition values were published.
XLE · 1w
No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oil Momentum Long (USO@1w) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Oil Momentum Long (XLE@1w) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1w) (1 condition)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (XLE@1w) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop After 4 Weeks (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "Oil Momentum Long (USO@1w)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "Oil Momentum Long (XLE@1w)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1w)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (XLE@1w)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.5065333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7532666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Time Stop After 4 Weeks",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.7532666666666668,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1w",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "Oil Momentum Long (USO@1w)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "Oil Momentum Long (XLE@1w)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1w)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1w"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (XLE@1w)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.5065333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7532666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Time Stop After 4 Weeks",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.7532666666666668,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1w",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Middle East tanker attack pushes oil higher while Japan's currency collapses — long energy and prepare for inflation'. Thesis: A tanker carrying Qatari crude was hit in the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran hostilities flare up, which immediately disrupted shipping and pushed oil prices higher. This geopolitical instability combines dangerously with historic currency weakness: the Japanese yen just fell to its lowest level since 1986. Because Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy, paying for oil in weak yen creates a punishing inflationary spiral. By connecting the Middle East supply disruption with Japan's currency collapse, the thesis is that energy prices will stay structurally elevated as geopolitical risk premiums rise while importing nations suffer crippling costs. Long US-based energy ETFs captures the upward momentum in oil prices driven by these dual forces.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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