Super Micro crashing on a $7 billion stock sale — short the dilution, ride the r

Thesis

Super Micro is heavily diluting its shareholders by selling $7 billion in new stock, a move that naturally devalues existing shares and spooks investors. While both companies compete in the AI server market, Dell is being rewarded by the market for its comparatively conservative financial positioning. This creates a clear divergence: investors are fleeing the company diluting their holdings and moving their money to the safer competitor. Trading this split by betting against Super Micro while betting on Dell captures this shift in investor confidence.

Strategy approach

Build a pair trade strategy on a daily timeframe. Go long DELL and short SMCI. Enter when the 10-day moving average of DELL crosses above the 10-day moving average of SMCI. Exit the trade when the 10-day moving average of SMCI crosses back above DELL, or if the trade hits a 5% portfolio-level stop loss based on the net position.

Markets and timeframes

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

• Entry: SMA Crossover Long (DELL@1d) (1 condition)
• Entry: SMA Crossover Short (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
• Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
• Exit: Stop Loss at 5.0% (1 condition)
• Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "DELL",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SMCI",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "DELL",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "SMA Crossover Long (DELL@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "DELL"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "DELL",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2",
      "name": "SMA Crossover Short (SMCI@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "SMCI"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "SMCI",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "SMCI"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -5
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
      "priority": 10,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 10
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3",
      "name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
      "priority": 11,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "stop_loss_percent": 5,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 10
    }
  ]
}

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "DELL",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SMCI",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "DELL",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "SMA Crossover Long (DELL@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "DELL"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "DELL",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2",
      "name": "SMA Crossover Short (SMCI@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "SMCI"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "SMCI",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "SMCI"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -5
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
      "priority": 10,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 10
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3",
      "name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
      "priority": 11,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "stop_loss_percent": 5,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Super Micro crashing on a $7 billion stock sale — short the dilution, ride the rival Dell'. Thesis: Super Micro is heavily diluting its shareholders by selling $7 billion in new stock, a move that naturally devalues existing shares and spooks investors. While both companies compete in the AI server market, Dell is being rewarded by the market for its comparatively conservative financial positioning. This creates a clear divergence: investors are fleeing the company diluting their holdings and moving their money to the safer competitor. Trading this split by betting against Super Micro while betting on Dell captures this shift in investor confidence.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

• The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
• Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
• No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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