Iran strikes block oil sales and Exxon flags a profit windfall — long oil majors
Thesis
The combination of military strikes blocking Iranian oil exports and a near-shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz creates a direct supply shock. Exxon has already confirmed that higher oil prices are flowing straight to their bottom line. With the ceasefire declared 'over' and active military engagement escalating, this isn't a one-day spike — it's a sustained margin expansion for oil majors with minimal Middle East exposure. Oil majors act as a leveraged play on the oil price while paying dividends during the hold.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long XOM and CVX on D1 when front-month crude oil futures (CL1) gain >3% in a single session and XOM or CVX are within 5% of their 20-day high. Exit on a 10% trailing stop or if CL1 drops below its 10-day low. Max hold 30 days.