Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears and Bitcoin ETFs see huge inflows — crypt
Thesis
The U.S. only added 57,000 jobs in June — half of what was expected — which immediately scaled back fears of a Fed rate hike. Lower rate expectations are rocket fuel for risk assets like crypto because cheaper borrowing costs push investors toward higher-risk, higher-reward bets. Simultaneously, Bitcoin ETFs just snapped a 10-day outflow streak with a massive $222 million inflow day, showing that big money is stepping back in. With the Fed likely on hold and institutional buyers returning, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin and Ethereum is upward.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based long strategy on BTCUSD using the H4 timeframe. Enter when BTC makes a new 10-day high AND the US 2-Year Treasury yield has dropped at least 15 basis points over the prior 5 trading days (signaling Fed hike expectations fading). Exit on a 6% trailing stop or if BTC closes below its 20-day exponential moving average. Max hold: 21 days.