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Public trading strategy

US Treasury chief calls 50% Canada tariffs 'reciprocity' — long domestic steel a

Created

Thesis

When a government official casually frames a 50% tariff as 'reciprocity,' it signals a willingness to push trade barriers far beyond normal levels. This kind of rhetoric directly threatens companies with deeply integrated Canadian supply chains — particularly automakers and industrial manufacturers who depend on cheap cross-border parts. Instead of trying to short the losers, it's safer to go long on domestic companies that benefit from protected markets. US-based steel and heavy machinery producers stand to gain the most as foreign competition is artificially priced out of the market.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that screens for US-listed companies with high revenue exposure to Canadian imports. Enter long positions in domestic-focused alternatives (e.g., US steel, domestic manufacturing) when a headline mentions tariffs exceeding 25% on Canada. Use a 30-day hold period with an 8% stop loss.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

CAT · 1d

6 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price at or below EMA (50) — met
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — near
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price at or below EMA (50) — met
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — near
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price above Bollinger (20) — far

NUE · 1d

4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price at or below EMA (50) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price at or below EMA (50) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price above Bollinger (20) — met

X · 1d

Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (CAT@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (NUE@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (CAT@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (NUE@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (CAT@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (NUE@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (CAT@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (NUE@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (CAT@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NUE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CAT@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (NUE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.5% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_cat",
      "name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_nue",
      "name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_cat",
      "name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_nue",
      "name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_cat",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_nue",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_cat",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_nue",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_cat",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 95,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_nue",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "long",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 786,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_cat",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CAT@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:CAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "long",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 786,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_nue",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (NUE@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NUE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.2675
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.535
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "fib_stop_ratio": 786,
      "risk_percent": 2.2675,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 50
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 50
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NUE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:CAT",
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      ],
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    },
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      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
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  "position_sizing": {
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    "method": {
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      "risk_percent": 2.2675,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
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    "min_position_value": 100
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  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'US Treasury chief calls 50% Canada tariffs 'reciprocity' — long domestic steel and manufacturers'. Thesis: When a government official casually frames a 50% tariff as 'reciprocity,' it signals a willingness to push trade barriers far beyond normal levels. This kind of rhetoric directly threatens companies with deeply integrated Canadian supply chains — particularly automakers and industrial manufacturers who depend on cheap cross-border parts. Instead of trying to short the losers, it's safer to go long on domestic companies that benefit from protected markets. US-based steel and heavy machinery producers stand to gain the most as foreign competition is artificially priced out of the market.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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