Public trading strategy
Weak jobs report sinks the dollar and fuels a crypto short squeeze — ride the Bi
Created
Thesis
The June jobs report showing only 57,000 new positions was a massive miss that immediately forced markets to price out future Fed rate hikes. This directly caused the U.S. dollar to suffer its biggest weekly drop since April. When the dollar weakens, risk assets like crypto get a tailwind because they are priced in dollars. Layering on top of this macro tailwind, we have a powerful crypto-specific catalyst: institutional buyers just injected $222 million into Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a 10-day selling streak. This combination of a weakening dollar and fresh institutional inflows is forcing short sellers to liquidate their positions, fueling a short squeeze that is pushing Bitcoin toward $62,000 and lifting the entire crypto market.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on the H4 timeframe when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is making a 10-day low AND Bitcoin breaks above its 48-hour high. Require confirmation that spot BTC ETF inflows were positive on the prior trading day. Exit if DXY rebounds above its 5-day high, if BTC drops 6% from entry, or after a 14-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_eth",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_btc",
"name": "Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_eth",
"name": "Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5800666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1601333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5800666666666667,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_eth",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_btc",
"name": "Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_eth",
"name": "Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5800666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1601333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5800666666666667,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs report sinks the dollar and fuels a crypto short squeeze — ride the Bitcoin momentum'. Thesis: The June jobs report showing only 57,000 new positions was a massive miss that immediately forced markets to price out future Fed rate hikes. This directly caused the U.S. dollar to suffer its biggest weekly drop since April. When the dollar weakens, risk assets like crypto get a tailwind because they are priced in dollars. Layering on top of this macro tailwind, we have a powerful crypto-specific catalyst: institutional buyers just injected $222 million into Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a 10-day selling streak. This combination of a weakening dollar and fresh institutional inflows is forcing short sellers to liquidate their positions, fueling a short squeeze that is pushing Bitcoin toward $62,000 and lifting the entire crypto market.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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