Public trading strategy
ETH Confirmed Reversion Short (Froth Fade) Strategy
Created
Thesis
When smaller coins vastly outpace Bitcoin — Quant up 39% in a day and 93 of 100 major coins rising — that usually marks late-stage speculative froth, not a durable trend. Meanwhile, the Fed under Chairman Warsh is signaling that more rate hikes remain possible, which drains the easy-money conditions speculative assets depend on. A mania supported by nothing but momentum, with tightening policy looming, tends to unwind fast. Fading the altcoin rally while Bitcoin consolidates offers attractive risk-reward on the short side.
Strategy approach
When smaller coins vastly outpace Bitcoin — Quant up 39% in a day and 93 of 100 major coins rising — that usually marks late-stage speculative froth, not a durable trend. Meanwhile, the Fed under Chairman Warsh is signaling that more rate hikes remain possible, which drains the easy-money conditions speculative assets depend on. A mania supported by nothing but momentum, with tightening policy looming, tends to unwind fast. Fading the altcoin rally while Bitcoin consolidates offers attractive risk-reward on the short side. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
ETH · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below EMA (9) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) above 55 — met
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
SOL · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below EMA (9) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) above 55 — met
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Reversal Short (ETH@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down (3 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Reversal Short (SOL@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down (3 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (ETH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (SOL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (ETH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (SOL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 45 Days (1 condition)
- Exit: Hard Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Confirmed Reversal Short (ETH@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "Confirmed Reversal Short (SOL@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_inval_eth",
"name": "Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_inval_sol",
"name": "Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_exh_eth",
"name": "Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_exh_sol",
"name": "Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Days",
"priority": 5,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2733333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_hard_stop",
"name": "Hard Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.546666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_hard_tp",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.2733333333333334,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Confirmed Reversal Short (ETH@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "Confirmed Reversal Short (SOL@1d): Close Below 9d EMA, RSI<50, MACD Cross Down",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_inval_eth",
"name": "Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_inval_sol",
"name": "Invalidation: Reversal Fails — Close Back Above 9d EMA with RSI Re-accelerating (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_exh_eth",
"name": "Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_exh_sol",
"name": "Profit Taking: Froth Unwind Exhaustion — Oversold RSI (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Days",
"priority": 5,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2733333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_hard_stop",
"name": "Hard Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.546666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_hard_tp",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.2733333333333334,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When smaller coins vastly outpace Bitcoin — Quant up 39% in a day and 93 of 100 major coins rising — that usually marks late-stage speculative froth, not a durable trend. Meanwhile, the Fed under Chairman Warsh is signaling that more rate hikes remain pos'. Thesis: When smaller coins vastly outpace Bitcoin — Quant up 39% in a day and 93 of 100 major coins rising — that usually marks late-stage speculative froth, not a durable trend. Meanwhile, the Fed under Chairman Warsh is signaling that more rate hikes remain possible, which drains the easy-money conditions speculative assets depend on. A mania supported by nothing but momentum, with tightening policy looming, tends to unwind fast. Fading the altcoin rally while Bitcoin consolidates offers attractive risk-reward on the short side.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies