Public trading strategy
AI hype priced into old-economy stocks — fade Caterpillar as Burry smells a top
Created
Thesis
Caterpillar stock nearly doubled this year purely because investors assumed the AI boom would require massive new construction and equipment. But investor hype is fading—the Mag 7 tech stocks just lost $2.3 trillion in value as people question whether this AI spending will actually pay off. As that tech euphoria dies and market volatility spikes to its highest level since 2015, a highly respected investor like Michael Burry publicly betting against Caterpillar signals the perfect breaking point for an overvalued industrial stock that got caught up in the AI hype.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following short strategy for CAT on D1. Enter short when the stock breaks below its 20-day moving average AND the broader market (SPY) has dropped 3% from its recent 20-day high. Use a 5% stop loss above entry and a 30-day maximum holding period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CAT · 1d
4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- Williams %R (14) below -20 — met
- Williams %R (14) above 1 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- Williams %R (14) below -20 — met
- Williams %R (14) above 1 — far
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- Price above SMA (20) — near
DE · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Williams %R (14) below -20 — met
- Williams %R (14) above 1 — far
- Price above SMA (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (CAT@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (SPY@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (CAT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (CAT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (CAT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cat",
"name": "SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "SPY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_cat",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_cat",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_cat",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.3771428571428572
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.7542857142857144
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.3771428571428572,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cat",
"name": "SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "williams_r",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "SMA/ADX/WILLIAMSR Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "SPY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CAT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_cat",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_cat",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_cat",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (CAT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CAT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.3771428571428572
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.7542857142857144
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.3771428571428572,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'AI hype priced into old-economy stocks — fade Caterpillar as Burry smells a top'. Thesis: Caterpillar stock nearly doubled this year purely because investors assumed the AI boom would require massive new construction and equipment. But investor hype is fading—the Mag 7 tech stocks just lost $2.3 trillion in value as people question whether this AI spending will actually pay off. As that tech euphoria dies and market volatility spikes to its highest level since 2015, a highly respected investor like Michael Burry publicly betting against Caterpillar signals the perfect breaking point for an overvalued industrial stock that got caught up in the AI hype.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies