Public trading strategy
UVXY Defined-Risk Long Volatility (Support-Reversal) Strategy
Created
Thesis
Two of Wall Street's most crowded borrowed-money trades are under pressure at the same time: hedge funds are pulling out of the Treasury 'basis trade,' and Citigroup is cutting exposure to emerging-market carry trades. These strategies depend on cheap financing and calm bond markets, so forced exits tend to feed on themselves and whipsaw markets far beyond the original positions. When crowded leverage unwinds, volatility tends to jump sharply and quickly, making a defined-risk long-volatility trade an asymmetric way to profit from the stress.
Strategy approach
Two of Wall Street's most crowded borrowed-money trades are under pressure at the same time: hedge funds are pulling out of the Treasury 'basis trade,' and Citigroup is cutting exposure to emerging-market carry trades. These strategies depend on cheap financing and calm bond markets, so forced exits tend to feed on themselves and whipsaw markets far beyond the original positions. When crowded leverage unwinds, volatility tends to jump sharply and quickly, making a defined-risk long-volatility trade an asymmetric way to profit from the stress. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
SPY · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — met
- Price below EMA (50) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price below EMA (50) — near
UVXY · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — far
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above EMA (50) — far
- Price below EMA (50) — met
VIX · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI Signal Long (UVXY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Signal Long (SPY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (UVXY@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (UVXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uvxy",
"name": "EMA/RSI Signal Long (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "EMA/RSI Signal Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uvxy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uvxy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5716666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1433333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5716666666666668,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uvxy",
"name": "EMA/RSI Signal Long (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "EMA/RSI Signal Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uvxy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uvxy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5716666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1433333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5716666666666668,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Two of Wall Street's most crowded borrowed-money trades are under pressure at the same time: hedge funds are pulling out of the Treasury 'basis trade,' and Citigroup is cutting exposure to emerging-market carry trades. These strategies depend on cheap fin'. Thesis: Two of Wall Street's most crowded borrowed-money trades are under pressure at the same time: hedge funds are pulling out of the Treasury 'basis trade,' and Citigroup is cutting exposure to emerging-market carry trades. These strategies depend on cheap financing and calm bond markets, so forced exits tend to feed on themselves and whipsaw markets far beyond the original positions. When crowded leverage unwinds, volatility tends to jump sharply and quickly, making a defined-risk long-volatility trade an asymmetric way to profit from the stress.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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