Public trading strategy
AI hype losing steam as tech giants stumble — short the chip rally
Created
Thesis
Wall Street is hitting the brakes on AI hype. With Alphabet admitting delays in its Gemini AI model and major hardware makers like Dell and Super Micro giving back huge gains, investors are realizing that the massive spending on AI might not deliver quick profits. When a dominant chipmaker like Marvell drops 8% and drags down the entire sector, it signals that the market's mood has shifted from 'buy at any price' to 'sell the rally.' This broad-based fear of a spending slowdown makes semiconductor and AI hardware stocks highly vulnerable to further drops as the panic spreads.
Strategy approach
Build a swing-short strategy on SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) and SMCI. Enter short on a 1D close below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2) when the 14-day RSI is below 40. Exit the trade if the price closes back above the 20-day simple moving average or if the holding period reaches 10 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AVGO · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or above Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
SMCI · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or above Bollinger (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
SOXX · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or above Bollinger (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Sell-the-Rally Short (SOXX@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Sell-the-Rally Short (SMCI@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Sell-the-Rally Short (AVGO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop 45 bars (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SOXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SOXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.7% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_soxx",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smci",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_avgo",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop 45 bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_soxx",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_smci",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_avgo",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 12,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_soxx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_smci",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_avgo",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 52,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.370346153846154
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_pct",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.740692307692308
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_pct",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.7%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 236,
"risk_percent": 2.370346153846154,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_soxx",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smci",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_avgo",
"name": "Sell-the-Rally Short (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop 45 bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_soxx",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_smci",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalid_avgo",
"name": "Invalidation: Resistance Reclaim (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 12,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_soxx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_smci",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_avgo",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 52,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.370346153846154
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_pct",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.740692307692308
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_pct",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.7%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 236,
"risk_percent": 2.370346153846154,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'AI hype losing steam as tech giants stumble — short the chip rally'. Thesis: Wall Street is hitting the brakes on AI hype. With Alphabet admitting delays in its Gemini AI model and major hardware makers like Dell and Super Micro giving back huge gains, investors are realizing that the massive spending on AI might not deliver quick profits. When a dominant chipmaker like Marvell drops 8% and drags down the entire sector, it signals that the market's mood has shifted from 'buy at any price' to 'sell the rally.' This broad-based fear of a spending slowdown makes semiconductor and AI hardware stocks highly vulnerable to further drops as the panic spreads.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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