Public trading strategy
BTC Trend Confirmation Divergence Strategy
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin has historically traded like a high-beta tech stock, so the fact that it gained while Nasdaq futures sank on AI fears is a genuine divergence, not a statistical fluke. It suggests crypto is being bought on its own drivers rather than as a leveraged tech proxy. That divergence typically signals underlying demand strong enough to absorb a broad risk-off day. A long-Bitcoin position captures this independent strength while avoiding the AI-warning exposure crushing tech equities.
Strategy approach
Bitcoin has historically traded like a high-beta tech stock, so the fact that it gained while Nasdaq futures sank on AI fears is a genuine divergence, not a statistical fluke. It suggests crypto is being bought on its own drivers rather than as a leveraged tech proxy. That divergence typically signals underlying demand strong enough to absorb a broad risk-off day. A long-Bitcoin position captures this independent strength while avoiding the AI-warning exposure crushing tech equities. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing, implied_volatility_expected_move, theta, breakeven_payoff, maximum_loss, liquidity_spread_volatility, simpler_alternatives.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BITO · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price above Price — met
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- SMA (20) crossed above Price — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- Price below SMA (20) — near
BTC · 1d
3 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price above Price — met
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- SMA (20) crossed above Price — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
MSTR · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- Price below SMA (20) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BTC@1d) (6 conditions)
- Entry: BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BITO@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: BTC Closes Below 50-Day Average (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Divergence Collapse: BITO Loses 20-Day Average (BITO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 60 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bito",
"name": "BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Invalidation: BTC Closes Below 50-Day Average (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Divergence Collapse: BITO Loses 20-Day Average (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 60 Bars",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2250000000000005
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6125000000000003
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.6125000000000003,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bito",
"name": "BTC-vs-Tech Divergence with BITO Reclaim Confirmation Long (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Invalidation: BTC Closes Below 50-Day Average (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Divergence Collapse: BITO Loses 20-Day Average (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 60 Bars",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2250000000000005
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6125000000000003
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.6125000000000003,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin has historically traded like a high-beta tech stock, so the fact that it gained while Nasdaq futures sank on AI fears is a genuine divergence, not a statistical fluke. It suggests crypto is being bought on its own drivers rather than as a leverage'. Thesis: Bitcoin has historically traded like a high-beta tech stock, so the fact that it gained while Nasdaq futures sank on AI fears is a genuine divergence, not a statistical fluke. It suggests crypto is being bought on its own drivers rather than as a leveraged tech proxy. That divergence typically signals underlying demand strong enough to absorb a broad risk-off day. A long-Bitcoin position captures this independent strength while avoiding the AI-warning exposure crushing tech equities.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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