Loading…
Public trading strategy

The Black Sea region is a breadbasket for global grain exports, so any shipping

Created

Thesis

The Black Sea region is a breadbasket for global grain exports, so any shipping disruption there immediately rattles wheat markets. Prices have already jumped to a one-week high on the news, signaling that traders are pricing in the risk of shortages. If the disruptions persist or escalate, wheat could keep climbing as buyers scramble for alternative supply. Grain ETFs give a simple way to ride this momentum without dealing with futures contracts, and the setup is ideal for a short-term swing trade while the supply fears are fresh.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

DBA · 1d

2 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.

  • EMA (9) below EMA (21) — near
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • RSI (14) above 32 — met
  • EMA (9) crossed below EMA (21) — near
  • RSI (14) below 32 — far
  • EMA (9) crossed above EMA (21) — near

WEAT · 1d

3 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.

  • EMA (9) below EMA (21) — met
  • ADX (14) above 25 — far
  • RSI (14) below 50 — met
  • RSI (14) above 32 — met
  • EMA (9) crossed below EMA (21) — near
  • RSI (14) below 32 — far
  • EMA (9) crossed above EMA (21) — near

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (DBA@1d) (5 conditions)
  • Entry: Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (WEAT@1d) (5 conditions)
  • Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (DBA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (WEAT@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DBA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (WEAT@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Momentum Invalidation (DBA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Momentum Invalidation (WEAT@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Time Stop at 20 Bars (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_dba",
      "name": "Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_weat",
      "name": "Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_dba",
      "name": "Oversold RSI Exit (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_weat",
      "name": "Oversold RSI Exit (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_dba",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_weat",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_dba",
      "name": "SL: Momentum Invalidation (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_weat",
      "name": "SL: Momentum Invalidation (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Time Stop at 20 Bars",
      "priority": 95,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 3
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 21
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 21
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_dba",
      "name": "Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "short",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_weat",
      "name": "Confirmed Momentum Breakdown Short (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_dba",
      "name": "Oversold RSI Exit (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 32
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_weat",
      "name": "Oversold RSI Exit (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_dba",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_weat",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DBA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_dba",
      "name": "SL: Momentum Invalidation (DBA@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DBA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:WEAT",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_weat",
      "name": "SL: Momentum Invalidation (WEAT@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:WEAT"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Time Stop at 20 Bars",
      "priority": 95,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 3
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The Black Sea region is a breadbasket for global grain exports, so any shipping disruption there immediately rattles wheat markets. Prices have already jumped to a one-week high on the news, signaling that traders are pricing in the risk of shortages. If '. Thesis: The Black Sea region is a breadbasket for global grain exports, so any shipping disruption there immediately rattles wheat markets. Prices have already jumped to a one-week high on the news, signaling that traders are pricing in the risk of shortages. If the disruptions persist or escalate, wheat could keep climbing as buyers scramble for alternative supply. Grain ETFs give a simple way to ride this momentum without dealing with futures contracts, and the setup is ideal for a short-term swing trade while the supply fears are fresh.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

Explore

How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies