Public trading strategy
Trump threatens fresh strikes on Iran — jump on rising oil prices
Thesis
Threats of military action in the Middle East create immediate fear that oil supplies could be disrupted, which pushes oil prices higher. Major oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, along with broad oil funds, directly profit from these rising prices. As long as the geopolitical tension remains, oil prices have a strong reason to stay elevated. We will buy into this momentum and keep the trade active until the short-term trend starts pointing back down.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when the 5-day EMA crosses above the 20-day EMA and RSI(14) is between 50 and 70. Exit the position when the 5-day EMA crosses back below the 20-day EMA. Use an 8% stop loss based on the entry price.