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Public trading strategy

SPY Buy-the-Dip Confirmation (post-Fed rebound) Strategy

Created

Thesis

When a widely feared event like a Fed rate hike actually happens, the initial reaction is often an emotional overshoot — the 630-point Dow drop shows sellers rushed for the exits on fears of more hikes. But the very next session saw a strong rebound, meaning the market had already priced in the bad news before it landed. This pattern of fear-driven selloff followed by quick recovery is a classic buying opportunity, since the knee-jerk selling is driven by panic rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Buying the confirmation of the bounce (not the falling knife) captures the recovery while limiting risk if the rebound fails.

Strategy approach

When a widely feared event like a Fed rate hike actually happens, the initial reaction is often an emotional overshoot — the 630-point Dow drop shows sellers rushed for the exits on fears of more hikes. But the very next session saw a strong rebound, meaning the market had already priced in the bad news before it landed. This pattern of fear-driven selloff followed by quick recovery is a classic buying opportunity, since the knee-jerk selling is driven by panic rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Buying the confirmation of the bounce (not the falling knife) captures the recovery while limiting risk if the rebound fails. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility,…

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

DIA · 1d

4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below EMA (20) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • MACD (12,26,9) crossed above MACD (12,26,9) — near
  • Price below EMA (20) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • MACD (12,26,9) crossed above MACD (12,26,9) — near

SPY · 1d

4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below EMA (20) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • MACD (12,26,9) crossed above MACD (12,26,9) — near
  • Price below EMA (20) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — met
  • RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
  • MACD (12,26,9) crossed above MACD (12,26,9) — near

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (SPY@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (DIA@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (SPY@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (DIA@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (SPY@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (DIA@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DIA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (DIA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "signal",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_spy",
      "name": "EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "signal",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_dia",
      "name": "EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (DIA@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:DIA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "signal",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_spy",
      "name": "EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "signal",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_dia",
      "name": "EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (DIA@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:DIA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_spy",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_dia",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (DIA@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:DIA"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 55
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_spy",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_dia",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DIA@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DIA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_spy",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_dia",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (DIA@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:DIA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.5793333333333335
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 5.158666666666667
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.5793333333333335,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "fast": 12,
      "name": "macd",
      "signal": 9,
      "slow": 26
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "fast": 12,
      "name": "macd",
      "signal": 9,
      "slow": 26
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 40
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "signal",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_spy",
      "name": "EMA/BB/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:DIA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
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          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
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          }
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          },
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    },
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        {
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    {
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      "direction": "long",
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    },
    {
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          }
        },
        {
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          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_spy",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (SPY@1d)",
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    },
    {
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      ],
      "direction": "long",
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      "id": "entry_3_dia",
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      "priority": 3,
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  ],
  "exit_rules": [
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      "applies_to": "both",
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        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
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          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
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        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
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      ],
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      "enabled": true,
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
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      "enabled": true,
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    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
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      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
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    {
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      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
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  "position_sizing": {
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    "method": {
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  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When a widely feared event like a Fed rate hike actually happens, the initial reaction is often an emotional overshoot — the 630-point Dow drop shows sellers rushed for the exits on fears of more hikes. But the very next session saw a strong rebound, mean'. Thesis: When a widely feared event like a Fed rate hike actually happens, the initial reaction is often an emotional overshoot — the 630-point Dow drop shows sellers rushed for the exits on fears of more hikes. But the very next session saw a strong rebound, meaning the market had already priced in the bad news before it landed. This pattern of fear-driven selloff followed by quick recovery is a classic buying opportunity, since the knee-jerk selling is driven by panic rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Buying the confirmation of the bounce (not the falling knife) captures the recovery while limiting risk if the rebound fails.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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