Public trading strategy
Bitcoin bleeds out but institutions keep building — position for the structural
Created
Thesis
We are connecting Bitcoin's price resilience above $60K despite ETF outflows with major Wall Street infrastructure build-outs. While retail ETF flows are shaky, institutions like BlackRock and Robinhood are laying down permanent rails for DeFi and tokenized assets. This divergence suggests the underlying market structure is strengthening even as short-term sentiment weakens, making current prices a strategic accumulation zone.
Strategy approach
Construct a dip-buying strategy for BTC-USD on H4. Entry condition is a touch of the 50-period EMA while the broader trend (200 EMA on D1) is still flat or pointing up. Add a confirmation filter: only enter if Google Trends interest for 'crypto' is in the top 50% of its 12-month range (proxy for retail engagement). Exit on a 5% bounce or close below the 200 H4 EMA.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
4 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (200) at or above EMA (200) — met
- Price above EMA (200) — met
- Price at or below EMA (50) — near
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- EMA (200) crossed below Price — far
ETH · 4h
3 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (200) at or above EMA (200) — met
- Price above EMA (200) — met
- Price at or below EMA (50) — near
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- EMA (200) crossed below Price — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (BTC@4h) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (ETH@4h) (5 conditions)
- Exit: SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (BTC) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (ETH) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5% fade in favor (1 condition)
- Exit: Time stop: exit after 7 days on 4h bars (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (BTC)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (ETH)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5% fade in favor",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 42
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time stop: exit after 7 days on 4h bars",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5644666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Contrarian fade: short the daily-uptrend dip at 50 EMA (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (BTC)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "SL: close crossing back above 200 EMA on 4h invalidates the fade (ETH)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5% fade in favor",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 42
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time stop: exit after 7 days on 4h bars",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5644666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin bleeds out but institutions keep building — position for the structural rebound'. Thesis: We are connecting Bitcoin's price resilience above $60K despite ETF outflows with major Wall Street infrastructure build-outs. While retail ETF flows are shaky, institutions like BlackRock and Robinhood are laying down permanent rails for DeFi and tokenized assets. This divergence suggests the underlying market structure is strengthening even as short-term sentiment weakens, making current prices a strategic accumulation zone.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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