Public trading strategy
Qatar's gas squeeze plus oil spike reignite inflation fears — short long-dated b
Created
Thesis
Qatar's decision to extend LNG disruptions through mid-October locks in at least two more months of elevated energy costs for businesses and consumers. When you combine that with already-high oil prices, bond investors are pricing in a real risk that inflation re-accelerates rather than cools off. As yields climb in response, long-dated bond funds like TLT fall — making this a clean short opportunity as the energy shock feeds directly into higher borrowing costs.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short TLT on D1 when the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) rises above its 20-day high and front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG=F) are up at least 3% on the same day, with a 21-day max hold and a 4% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
TLT · 1d
8 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above Donchian (20) — near
- Price above Donchian (20) — near
TMV · 1d
4 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (20) — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below Donchian (20) — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above Donchian (20) — met
- Price above Donchian (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (TMV@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (UNG@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (TMV@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (UNG@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (TMV@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (UNG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TMV@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (UNG@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TMV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (UNG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (TMV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (UNG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tmv",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ung",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tlt",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tmv",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_ung",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tlt",
"name": "Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tmv",
"name": "Crossover Long (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_ung",
"name": "Crossover Long (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tmv",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ung",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tmv",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ung",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tmv",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TMV@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TMV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ung",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (UNG@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UNG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TMV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UNG",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
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"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Qatar's gas squeeze plus oil spike reignite inflation fears — short long-dated bonds'. Thesis: Qatar's decision to extend LNG disruptions through mid-October locks in at least two more months of elevated energy costs for businesses and consumers. When you combine that with already-high oil prices, bond investors are pricing in a real risk that inflation re-accelerates rather than cools off. As yields climb in response, long-dated bond funds like TLT fall — making this a clean short opportunity as the energy shock feeds directly into higher borrowing costs.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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