Public trading strategy
Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — Bitcoin ripe for a breakout
Created
Thesis
The June jobs report showed only 57,000 jobs added, signaling a rapidly cooling labor market. According to Bloomberg, this immediately dimmed expectations for Fed rate hikes, causing bonds to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, which CoinDesk notes already broke above $61,000 as inflation fears soften. Connecting the weak jobs data to Bitcoin's current momentum creates a clear bullish macro thesis: a slowing economy keeps the Fed dovish, providing a perfect liquidity backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin to push higher.
Strategy approach
Build a long momentum strategy for BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe. Entry condition: BTCUSD crosses above its 50-period high AND the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) drops by at least 0.05% on the same or previous day. Exit condition: 10% trailing stop or a close below the 20-period EMA.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed above Donchian (50) — near
- ROC (5) above 0 — met
- Price below EMA (20) — near
IBIT · 4h
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed above Donchian (50) — near
- ROC (5) above 0 — met
- Price below EMA (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Donchian Breakout Long with Positive Momentum (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Donchian Breakout Long with Positive Momentum (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.666733333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.333466666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.666733333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Donchian Breakout Long with Positive Momentum (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.666733333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.333466666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.666733333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — Bitcoin ripe for a breakout'. Thesis: The June jobs report showed only 57,000 jobs added, signaling a rapidly cooling labor market. According to Bloomberg, this immediately dimmed expectations for Fed rate hikes, causing bonds to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, which CoinDesk notes already broke above $61,000 as inflation fears soften. Connecting the weak jobs data to Bitcoin's current momentum creates a clear bullish macro thesis: a slowing economy keeps the Fed dovish, providing a perfect liquidity backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin to push higher.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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