Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — Bitcoin ripe for a breakout
Thesis
The June jobs report showed only 57,000 jobs added, signaling a rapidly cooling labor market. According to Bloomberg, this immediately dimmed expectations for Fed rate hikes, causing bonds to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, which CoinDesk notes already broke above $61,000 as inflation fears soften. Connecting the weak jobs data to Bitcoin's current momentum creates a clear bullish macro thesis: a slowing economy keeps the Fed dovish, providing a perfect liquidity backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin to push higher.
Strategy approach
Build a long momentum strategy for BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe. Entry condition: BTCUSD crosses above its 50-period high AND the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) drops by at least 0.05% on the same or previous day. Exit condition: 10% trailing stop or a close below the 20-period EMA.