Public trading strategy
Iran peace deal looming — oil prices are sliding, bet on further drops
Created
Thesis
War in the Middle East has been keeping oil prices inflated because of the threat to global supply, but a sudden peace deal would remove that threat entirely. The market is already reacting to the news by pushing prices down, and investors will likely keep selling as the actual signing of the agreement gets closer. This rush to sell ahead of the final deal creates a powerful downward momentum that traders can follow. Essentially, the 'war premium' built into the cost of oil is rapidly evaporating.
Strategy approach
Build a short-term short strategy on crude oil futures (CL=F) or the United States Oil Fund (USO). On a 1-hour timeframe, enter a short position if the price breaks below the previous day's low and the 20-period moving average. Target a 4% to 5% profit drop from the breakdown point, and place a strict stop-loss 2% above the breakdown candle's high to protect against a sudden deal collapse.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (USO@1h) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (XLE@1h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@1h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (USO@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@1h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (USO@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA Crossover Long (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@1h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@1h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Iran peace deal looming — oil prices are sliding, bet on further drops'. Thesis: War in the Middle East has been keeping oil prices inflated because of the threat to global supply, but a sudden peace deal would remove that threat entirely. The market is already reacting to the news by pushing prices down, and investors will likely keep selling as the actual signing of the agreement gets closer. This rush to sell ahead of the final deal creates a powerful downward momentum that traders can follow. Essentially, the 'war premium' built into the cost of oil is rapidly evaporating.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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