Public trading strategy
Most of the published oil plays buy producers like Exxon, but the real bottlenec
Created
Thesis
Most of the published oil plays buy producers like Exxon, but the real bottleneck is in the middle of the chain: the IEA says refineries are stretched to the limit and US diesel just broke $6 a gallon for the first time ever. Refiners buy crude and sell diesel, so when diesel prices spike far faster than crude, their profit margins — the crack spread — widen sharply. With a protracted war keeping inventories shrinking, this margin windfall is likely to persist rather than fade with the war-premium in crude itself.
Strategy approach
Most of the published oil plays buy producers like Exxon, but the real bottleneck is in the middle of the chain: the IEA says refineries are stretched to the limit and US diesel just broke $6 a gallon for the first time ever. Refiners buy crude and sell diesel, so when diesel prices spike far faster than crude, their profit margins — the crack spread — widen sharply. With a protracted war keeping inventories shrinking, this margin windfall is likely to persist rather than fade with the war-premium in crude itself. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
DINO · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
MPC · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
VLO · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price at or below EMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above Price — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (DINO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (MPC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (VLO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (DINO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (MPC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Long (VLO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (DINO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (MPC@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (VLO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DINO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MPC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (VLO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dino",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (DINO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DINO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mpc",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (MPC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MPC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vlo",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (VLO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VLO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_dino",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (DINO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DINO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_mpc",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (MPC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MPC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_vlo",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (VLO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VLO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_dino",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (DINO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DINO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_mpc",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (MPC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MPC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_vlo",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (VLO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VLO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 63
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_dino",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (DINO@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DINO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mpc",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MPC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MPC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vlo",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (VLO@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VLO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.275
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.275,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VLO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DINO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dino",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Long (DINO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DINO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MPC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Most of the published oil plays buy producers like Exxon, but the real bottleneck is in the middle of the chain: the IEA says refineries are stretched to the limit and US diesel just broke $6 a gallon for the first time ever. Refiners buy crude and sell d'. Thesis: Most of the published oil plays buy producers like Exxon, but the real bottleneck is in the middle of the chain: the IEA says refineries are stretched to the limit and US diesel just broke $6 a gallon for the first time ever. Refiners buy crude and sell diesel, so when diesel prices spike far faster than crude, their profit margins — the crack spread — widen sharply. With a protracted war keeping inventories shrinking, this margin windfall is likely to persist rather than fade with the war-premium in crude itself.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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