Oil dips on false peace even as IMF warns supply buffers are gone — load up on e
Created
Thesis
The IMF is explicitly warning that the world has run out of its usual buffers to absorb an oil supply shock, making the market extremely fragile to a renewed conflict. Meanwhile, headlines note that a brief easing of Iran tensions has caused stock futures to rise and oil prices to drop. This temporary discount on energy majors like ExxonMobil—already flagged as top premarket movers—offers a prime entry point. Oil producers and drillers are being sold on peace hopes, but the underlying supply tightness means any renewed tension will send these stocks soaring. When markets are this tight, buying the dip on false peace rallies is a high-probability trade.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based swing strategy that enters long XOM, CVX, and SLB on the D1 timeframe when WTI crude oil drops 3% in a single session (based on headline-driven de-escalation). Enter on the close of the down day. Set a 21-day max hold and a 7% trailing stop to capture the relief dip while guarding against a fundamental demand collapse.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CVX · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- RSI (14) above 65 — far
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
SLB · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- RSI (14) above 65 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
XOM · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- Price at or below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- RSI (14) above 65 — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (XOM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (CVX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (SLB@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Crossover Long (SLB@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (SLB@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SLB@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SLB@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_slb",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (SLB@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SLB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xom",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_cvx",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_slb",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (SLB@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SLB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xom",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_cvx",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_slb",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (SLB@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SLB"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xom",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_cvx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_slb",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SLB@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xom",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_cvx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_slb",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SLB@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.390125
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.78025
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.390125,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SLB",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "BB/RSI Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil dips on false peace even as IMF warns supply buffers are gone — load up on energy majors'. Thesis: The IMF is explicitly warning that the world has run out of its usual buffers to absorb an oil supply shock, making the market extremely fragile to a renewed conflict. Meanwhile, headlines note that a brief easing of Iran tensions has caused stock futures to rise and oil prices to drop. This temporary discount on energy majors like ExxonMobil—already flagged as top premarket movers—offers a prime entry point. Oil producers and drillers are being sold on peace hopes, but the underlying supply tightness means any renewed tension will send these stocks soaring. When markets are this tight, buying the dip on false peace rallies is a high-probability trade.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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