Public trading strategy
UUP Breakout Confirmation Strategy
Created
Thesis
When US bonds pay more than almost any time in 19 years, global investors do not need to take risks in emerging markets to earn a return — they can park money in Treasuries instead. That is exactly what the tape shows: developing-world currencies have fallen for a fourth straight day as the bond stress spreads, and traders are openly gaming what a 5% 10-year yield means for risk assets. With the Fed meeting this week and inflation still forcing its hand, there is little on the horizon that should pull yields back down. A long-dollar versus short-EM-currency position is a direct way to ride that flow, and it also hedges a portfolio that is likely long US stocks.
Strategy approach
When US bonds pay more than almost any time in 19 years, global investors do not need to take risks in emerging markets to earn a return — they can park money in Treasuries instead. That is exactly what the tape shows: developing-world currencies have fallen for a fourth straight day as the bond stress spreads, and traders are openly gaming what a 5% 10-year yield means for risk assets. With the Fed meeting this week and inflation still forcing its hand, there is little on the horizon that should pull yields back down. A long-dollar versus short-EM-currency position is a direct way to ride that flow, and it also hedges a portfolio that is likely long US stocks. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume,…
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Fade Breakout Short (UUP@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop at 45 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Close Back Above Breakout Level (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[2] (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CEW",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup_fade",
"name": "Fade Breakout Short (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uup",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Back Above Breakout Level (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uup",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CEW",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup_fade",
"name": "Fade Breakout Short (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uup",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Back Above Breakout Level (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uup",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When US bonds pay more than almost any time in 19 years, global investors do not need to take risks in emerging markets to earn a return — they can park money in Treasuries instead. That is exactly what the tape shows: developing-world currencies have fal'. Thesis: When US bonds pay more than almost any time in 19 years, global investors do not need to take risks in emerging markets to earn a return — they can park money in Treasuries instead. That is exactly what the tape shows: developing-world currencies have fallen for a fourth straight day as the bond stress spreads, and traders are openly gaming what a 5% 10-year yield means for risk assets. With the Fed meeting this week and inflation still forcing its hand, there is little on the horizon that should pull yields back down. A long-dollar versus short-EM-currency position is a direct way to ride that flow, and it also hedges a portfolio that is likely long US stocks.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies