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Public trading strategy

Netflix tumbles into earnings as global market sours — short the streaming giant

Created

Thesis

Netflix has already lost over 40% of its value in the past year, showing that investors have been heading for the exits for a long time. The broader market is getting dragged down by a global selloff in AI and chip stocks, which creates a negative backdrop that makes it even harder for a beaten-down stock to surprise people. When a stock is already in a downtrend and the whole market is pulling back, the bar for a positive earnings surprise is extremely high — any hint of weakness in the report could trigger another leg down.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based short strategy for NFLX heading into earnings. Enter short on D1 if NFLX is within 3% of its 52-week low and the S&P 500 futures are down >0.5% on the day. Manage the position into the earnings print with a tight stop above the most recent swing high; cover for a 5-8% gain if the stock drops pre-earnings on market-wide weakness.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

NFLX · 1d

12 of 18 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Supertrend (10) below Price — met
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • ROC (1) below -0.5 — far
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ROC (1) below -0.5 — far
  • Supertrend (10) below Price — met
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • ROC (1) below -0.5 — far
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ROC (1) below 0 — far
  • Supertrend (10) below Price — met
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • ROC (1) below -0.5 — far
  • Price below Donchian (20) — met
  • ROC (1) below 0 — far
  • RSI (14) above 75 — far
  • RSI (14) above 75 — far
  • RSI (14) above 75 — far

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (NFLX@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (SPY@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (QQQ@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Exit: Overbought RSI Exit (NFLX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Overbought RSI Exit (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Overbought RSI Exit (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (NFLX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (NFLX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Thesis time stop after 45 days (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "multiplier": 3,
              "name": "supertrend",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -0.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -0.5
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_nflx",
      "name": "Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (NFLX@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NFLX"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "multiplier": 3,
              "name": "supertrend",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -0.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_spy",
      "name": "Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "multiplier": 3,
              "name": "supertrend",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -0.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_qqq",
      "name": "Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (QQQ@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 75
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_nflx",
      "name": "Overbought RSI Exit (NFLX@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NFLX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 75
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_spy",
      "name": "Overbought RSI Exit (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 75
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_qqq",
      "name": "Overbought RSI Exit (QQQ@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_nflx",
      "name": "Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (NFLX@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NFLX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_spy",
      "name": "Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_qqq",
      "name": "Stop Loss: Breaks Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_nflx",
      "name": "Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (NFLX@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NFLX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_spy",
      "name": "Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_qqq",
      "name": "Take Profit: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.636066666666667
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 5.272133333333334
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 45
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "advanced_analysis_time_stop",
      "name": "Thesis time stop after 45 days",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "signal"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.636066666666667,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 3
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "multiplier": 3,
      "name": "supertrend",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "donchian",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "roc",
      "period": 1
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "multiplier": 3,
              "name": "supertrend",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "lower",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 1
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -0.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NFLX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
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        }
      ],
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    },
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            "type": "indicator"
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        {
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        },
        {
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      "direction": "long",
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    },
    {
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        },
        {
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        {
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        },
        {
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      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_qqq",
      "name": "Contrarian Post-Earnings Reversal Long (QQQ@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
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      "priority": 1,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
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    },
    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_nflx",
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    {
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      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
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      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
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    {
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      "conditions": [
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          "right": {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "advanced_analysis_time_stop",
      "name": "Thesis time stop after 45 days",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "signal"
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  ],
  "position_sizing": {
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    "method": {
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      "type": "fixed_risk"
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    "min_position_value": 100
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  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 3
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Netflix tumbles into earnings as global market sours — short the streaming giant's results'. Thesis: Netflix has already lost over 40% of its value in the past year, showing that investors have been heading for the exits for a long time. The broader market is getting dragged down by a global selloff in AI and chip stocks, which creates a negative backdrop that makes it even harder for a beaten-down stock to surprise people. When a stock is already in a downtrend and the whole market is pulling back, the bar for a positive earnings surprise is extremely high — any hint of weakness in the report could trigger another leg down.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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