Public trading strategy
Chip rally exhausted, memory glut hits — short Micron and memory stocks
Created
Thesis
Micron and other memory chip stocks were the darlings of Q2 2026, contributing to a $2 trillion rally across the sector. But the combination of a sudden supply-glut scare hitting SanDisk, Seagate, and Micron hard — alongside a broader investor rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into Bitcoin — suggests the AI chip trade is losing momentum. When a leading sector starts cracking on fundamental fears (oversupply) while capital rotates elsewhere, the initial selloff often has legs. The CoinDesk piece explicitly flags this rotation from chips back into crypto as a sign of changing investor focus, which historically has marked turning points for overheated sectors.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MU on D1 when the stock drops below its 20-day low AND Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rises 3% over the same 5-session window. Exit if MU closes above the 10-day high, with a 12% stop loss and 30-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
MU · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (20) crossed below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- ROC (5) above 0.5 — met
- Donchian (20) crossed above 0 — far
NVDA · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (20) crossed below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- ROC (5) above 0.5 — far
- Donchian (20) crossed above 0 — far
SMH · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (20) crossed below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- ROC (5) above 0.5 — met
- Donchian (20) crossed above 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (NVDA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: DONCHIAN Crosses Above Exit (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN Crosses Above Exit (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.571
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.142
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.571,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN Crosses Above Exit (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.571
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.142
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.571,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Chip rally exhausted, memory glut hits — short Micron and memory stocks'. Thesis: Micron and other memory chip stocks were the darlings of Q2 2026, contributing to a $2 trillion rally across the sector. But the combination of a sudden supply-glut scare hitting SanDisk, Seagate, and Micron hard — alongside a broader investor rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into Bitcoin — suggests the AI chip trade is losing momentum. When a leading sector starts cracking on fundamental fears (oversupply) while capital rotates elsewhere, the initial selloff often has legs. The CoinDesk piece explicitly flags this rotation from chips back into crypto as a sign of changing investor focus, which historically has marked turning points for overheated sectors.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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