Public trading strategy
Peace deal sends oil prices tumbling — short-term short play on crude oil
Thesis
When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, millions of barrels of oil will flow freely again, causing a glut of supply. This sudden increase in available oil is already crashing prices in the futures market. Since the deal isn't even fully signed yet, there is still room for oil prices to fall further as the reality of renewed supply hits the market. Betting against oil here captures that downward momentum.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy that enters short on USOIL (WTI Crude) on the M15 timeframe when the price breaks below the 20-period EMA and RSI(14) is below 40. Exit the trade if the price crosses back above the 20-period EMA or after a maximum 5-day hold. Use a 2% stop loss.