Public trading strategy
Peace deal sends oil prices tumbling — short-term short play on crude oil
Created
Thesis
When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, millions of barrels of oil will flow freely again, causing a glut of supply. This sudden increase in available oil is already crashing prices in the futures market. Since the deal isn't even fully signed yet, there is still room for oil prices to fall further as the reality of renewed supply hits the market. Betting against oil here captures that downward momentum.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy that enters short on USOIL (WTI Crude) on the M15 timeframe when the price breaks below the 20-period EMA and RSI(14) is below 40. Exit the trade if the price crosses back above the 20-period EMA or after a maximum 5-day hold. Use a 2% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m) (3 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m) (3 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m) (2 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Short (USO@15m) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Short (XLE@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLE@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 6.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@15m) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@15m) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_uso",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xle",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_uso",
"name": "Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xle",
"name": "Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@15m)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 6.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@15m)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_xle",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@15m)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xle",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "15m",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_uso",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xle",
"name": "EMA/RSI Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_uso",
"name": "Crossover Short (USO@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xle",
"name": "Crossover Short (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@15m)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 6.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@15m)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_xle",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (USO@15m)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "15m"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xle",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLE@15m)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "15m",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Peace deal sends oil prices tumbling — short-term short play on crude oil'. Thesis: When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, millions of barrels of oil will flow freely again, causing a glut of supply. This sudden increase in available oil is already crashing prices in the futures market. Since the deal isn't even fully signed yet, there is still room for oil prices to fall further as the reality of renewed supply hits the market. Betting against oil here captures that downward momentum.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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