Public trading strategy
Stocks plunge but bonds rally as traders rethink rate hikes — ride the Treasury
Created
Thesis
With tech stocks in a freefall, money is rotating into safe government bonds, pushing their prices up. At the same time, some traders are starting to doubt that the Fed will actually hike rates as aggressively as the market currently prices in. If rate hike expectations cool down, bond prices will rise even further because they benefit from lower rate expectations. This creates a double tailwind for bonds: a flight to safety from the stock selloff plus a potential shift in rate expectations.
Strategy approach
Build a strategy that enters long TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) on the daily timeframe when the 10-day RSI crosses above 55 and price is above the 20-day exponential moving average. Exit if RSI crosses below 45 or after a 21-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
TLT1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
TLT · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (10) crossed above 55 — far
- Price above EMA (20) — near
- RSI (10) crossed below 45 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: RSI/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: RSI Crosses Below Exit (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "RSI/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "RSI Crosses Below Exit (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.743933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.487866666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.743933333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "RSI/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "RSI Crosses Below Exit (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.743933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.487866666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.743933333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Stocks plunge but bonds rally as traders rethink rate hikes — ride the Treasury bounce'. Thesis: With tech stocks in a freefall, money is rotating into safe government bonds, pushing their prices up. At the same time, some traders are starting to doubt that the Fed will actually hike rates as aggressively as the market currently prices in. If rate hike expectations cool down, bond prices will rise even further because they benefit from lower rate expectations. This creates a double tailwind for bonds: a flight to safety from the stock selloff plus a potential shift in rate expectations.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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