Public trading strategy
Tesla crushed delivery numbers but the stock dropped anyway — fading the dip as
Created
Thesis
Tesla just delivered 480,126 vehicles — crushing estimates and proving the company's growth story is intact, per the MarketWatch delivery beat article. Yet the stock dropped 7% the same day, as noted in the Yahoo Finance article. Here's where the macro piece comes in: Bloomberg reports that the weak jobs report just killed expectations for Fed rate hikes, causing bonds to rally and yields to fall. Lower interest rates are fundamentally positive for growth stocks like Tesla because they lower borrowing costs and make future earnings more valuable. You have a strong fundamental catalyst (delivery beat) combined with a favorable macro shift (falling yields) — but the stock is selling off anyway. That disconnect is the setup.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long TSLA on D1 when the stock drops 5% or more on a day it reports positive delivery/earnings news (beating consensus), AND the 10-year Treasury yield falls on the same day. Entry should trigger the next trading day. Exit on a close above the 10-day moving average or after a 14-day max hold, with an 8% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
TSLAD1
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA/RSI/ATR Signal Long (TSLA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 16.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI/ATR Signal Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 16
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 16.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.490666666666667,
"stop_loss_percent": 8,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI/ATR Signal Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 16
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 16.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.490666666666667,
"stop_loss_percent": 8,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Tesla crushed delivery numbers but the stock dropped anyway — fading the dip as bond yields fall'. Thesis: Tesla just delivered 480,126 vehicles — crushing estimates and proving the company's growth story is intact, per the MarketWatch delivery beat article. Yet the stock dropped 7% the same day, as noted in the Yahoo Finance article. Here's where the macro piece comes in: Bloomberg reports that the weak jobs report just killed expectations for Fed rate hikes, causing bonds to rally and yields to fall. Lower interest rates are fundamentally positive for growth stocks like Tesla because they lower borrowing costs and make future earnings more valuable. You have a strong fundamental catalyst (delivery beat) combined with a favorable macro shift (falling yields) — but the stock is selling off anyway. That disconnect is the setup.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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