Public trading strategy
A Fed chair who surprises markets with hawkish decisions creates exactly the env
Created
Thesis
A Fed chair who surprises markets with hawkish decisions creates exactly the environment where traders demand extra compensation for holding long-term bonds. Combine that with traders openly betting the Fed may hike as soon as next week, and the two forces both point the same direction: downward pressure on long-term bond prices. Unlike ideas that just bet on rate-hike odds rising, this targets the bond market itself, where the damage lands first and most directly. If the Fed follows through or even keeps sounding tough, long-duration bonds keep bleeding.
Strategy approach
A Fed chair who surprises markets with hawkish decisions creates exactly the environment where traders demand extra compensation for holding long-term bonds. Combine that with traders openly betting the Fed may hike as soon as next week, and the two forces both point the same direction: downward pressure on long-term bond prices. Unlike ideas that just bet on rate-hike odds rising, this targets the bond market itself, where the damage lands first and most directly. If the Fed follows through or even keeps sounding tough, long-duration bonds keep bleeding. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
TBF · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above EMA (10) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- OBV above Price — unknown
- Price below EMA (10) — near
TLT · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above EMA (10) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- OBV above Price — unknown
- Price below EMA (10) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TBF@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TBF@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (TBF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.4% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tbf",
"name": "EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tbf",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tbf",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tbf",
"name": "EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "EMA/ADX/OBV Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tbf",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TBF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tbf",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TBF@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TBF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'A Fed chair who surprises markets with hawkish decisions creates exactly the environment where traders demand extra compensation for holding long-term bonds. Combine that with traders openly betting the Fed may hike as soon as next week, and the two force'. Thesis: A Fed chair who surprises markets with hawkish decisions creates exactly the environment where traders demand extra compensation for holding long-term bonds. Combine that with traders openly betting the Fed may hike as soon as next week, and the two forces both point the same direction: downward pressure on long-term bond prices. Unlike ideas that just bet on rate-hike odds rising, this targets the bond market itself, where the damage lands first and most directly. If the Fed follows through or even keeps sounding tough, long-duration bonds keep bleeding.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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