Public trading strategy
XLP Market-Neutral Sector Pair Strategy
Created
Thesis
The physical supply shock is real — Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline and another vessel was struck near Hormuz, with tanker rates already soaring — so pump prices are likely to keep climbing. At the same time, Goldman and the other big banks now expect the Fed to actually raise rates this week, meaning households face costlier credit on top of costlier fuel. History shows that combination of energy-price pain and tightening policy hits travel, restaurants, and discretionary retail first, while staples like food and household goods hold up. A long-staples/short-discretionary pair captures this squeeze without betting on the overall market direction.
Strategy approach
The physical supply shock is real — Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline and another vessel was struck near Hormuz, with tanker rates already soaring — so pump prices are likely to keep climbing. At the same time, Goldman and the other big banks now expect the Fed to actually raise rates this week, meaning households face costlier credit on top of costlier fuel. History shows that combination of energy-price pain and tightening policy hits travel, restaurants, and discretionary retail first, while staples like food and household goods hold up. A long-staples/short-discretionary pair captures this squeeze without betting on the overall market direction. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
XLP · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- Price above Price — met
- EMA (20) above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — near
XLY · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- Price above Price — met
- EMA (20) above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: XLY Rollover vs Strong XLP Short (XLY@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: XLY Reclaims 50-Day Proxy (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "XLY Rollover vs Strong XLP Short (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Invalidation: XLY Reclaims 50-Day Proxy",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "XLY Rollover vs Strong XLP Short (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Invalidation: XLY Reclaims 50-Day Proxy",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The physical supply shock is real — Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline and another vessel was struck near Hormuz, with tanker rates already soaring — so pump prices are likely to keep climbing. At the same time, Goldman and the other big banks now e'. Thesis: The physical supply shock is real — Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline and another vessel was struck near Hormuz, with tanker rates already soaring — so pump prices are likely to keep climbing. At the same time, Goldman and the other big banks now expect the Fed to actually raise rates this week, meaning households face costlier credit on top of costlier fuel. History shows that combination of energy-price pain and tightening policy hits travel, restaurants, and discretionary retail first, while staples like food and household goods hold up. A long-staples/short-discretionary pair captures this squeeze without betting on the overall market direction.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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