Public trading strategy
IBM's nightmare earnings drag down software stocks — short the spillver in enter
Created
Thesis
IBM cratered over 20% after warning that its software business is struggling because clients are shifting their spending elsewhere. When a massive tech legacy player drops this much in a single day due to fundamental software weakness, it signals a broader pullback in corporate tech spending that often pressures the entire software industry. Because investors hate uncertainty, they frequently pre-emptively sell other large software stocks to get ahead of similar bad news. This creates a momentum opportunity to profit from the spillover selling pressure in IBM's direct competitors.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based swing strategy that enters short MSFT and CRM on D1 after a major competitor's earnings warning triggers a sector-wide selloff (IBM down >20%). Enter at the open of the next trading session. Exit conditions: 5% profit target or a 10-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/ADX Crossover Short (CRM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Crossover Short (MSFT@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Crossover Short (ORCL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Crossover Short (IBM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Signal Short (CRM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Signal Short (MSFT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Signal Short (ORCL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/ADX Signal Short (IBM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (CRM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (MSFT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (ORCL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (IBM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (CRM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ORCL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (CRM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (ORCL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_crm",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_orcl",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ibm",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_crm",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Short (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_msft",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Short (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_orcl",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Short (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_ibm",
"name": "ROC/ADX Signal Short (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_crm",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_orcl",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ibm",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_crm",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_orcl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ibm",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_crm",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_msft",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_orcl",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_ibm",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4526333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.4526333333333334,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_crm",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (CRM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_orcl",
"name": "ROC/ADX Crossover Short (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
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"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'IBM's nightmare earnings drag down software stocks — short the spillver in enterprise software'. Thesis: IBM cratered over 20% after warning that its software business is struggling because clients are shifting their spending elsewhere. When a massive tech legacy player drops this much in a single day due to fundamental software weakness, it signals a broader pullback in corporate tech spending that often pressures the entire software industry. Because investors hate uncertainty, they frequently pre-emptively sell other large software stocks to get ahead of similar bad news. This creates a momentum opportunity to profit from the spillover selling pressure in IBM's direct competitors.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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