Public trading strategy
AI chip bubble springing a leak — short Super Micro as Samsung and SK Hynix plun
Created
Thesis
The AI chip trade has been unstoppable, but we're seeing a perfect storm of negative headlines that could trigger a broader pullback. News of a smuggling probe hitting Super Micro signals regulatory risk is escalating. When combined with reports that Meta is looking to offload computing power (sparking fears of an AI infrastructure glut), the narrative is shifting from 'not enough chips' to 'too much capacity.' The fact that major Asian suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix are already tumbling 7% suggests this isn't just a one-day blip, but a coordinated rotation out of the most crowded part of the market.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short SMCI on D1 when the stock closes below its 10-day low and the KOSPI index (or a Korean semiconductor ETF like SOXX) drops more than 3% on the same trading day. Exit the trade if SMCI closes above its 5-day high, with a hard 15% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
SMCI · 1d
2 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (10) — met
- ROC (1) below -2.4 — met
- Price above Donchian (5) — near
SOXX · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Short (SMCI@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 18.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 12.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smci",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Short (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "SMCI"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smci",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -18
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smci",
"name": "Stop Loss at 18.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smci",
"name": "Take Profit at 12.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.413066666666667,
"stop_loss_percent": 18,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smci",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Short (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "SMCI"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smci",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -18
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smci",
"name": "Stop Loss at 18.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smci",
"name": "Take Profit at 12.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SMCI"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.413066666666667,
"stop_loss_percent": 18,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'AI chip bubble springing a leak — short Super Micro as Samsung and SK Hynix plunge'. Thesis: The AI chip trade has been unstoppable, but we're seeing a perfect storm of negative headlines that could trigger a broader pullback. News of a smuggling probe hitting Super Micro signals regulatory risk is escalating. When combined with reports that Meta is looking to offload computing power (sparking fears of an AI infrastructure glut), the narrative is shifting from 'not enough chips' to 'too much capacity.' The fact that major Asian suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix are already tumbling 7% suggests this isn't just a one-day blip, but a coordinated rotation out of the most crowded part of the market.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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