Public trading strategy
Crypto crumbles as war fears kill risk appetite — short Bitcoin on the breakout
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin is often treated like a high-risk tech stock, and it's acting like one right now. The collapse of the Iran ceasefire has oil surging, which is reigniting inflation fears and pushing bond yields up. When yields rise and inflation scares hit the stock market, investors liquidate risky assets like Bitcoin to raise cash. With BTC testing the critical $61,000 level, this macro pressure makes a breakdown likely.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following short strategy for BTC-USD on the D1 timeframe. Enter short when BTC breaks below the $61,000 support level while the US 10-year Treasury yield is rising on the same day. Exit the trade if BTC closes back above $65,000. Use a 6% stop loss based on the entry price.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
3 of 7 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 61000 — far
- EMA (20) below Price — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price below Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Momentum (10) above 0.5 — met
- Price above 65000 — met
COIN · 1d
4 of 7 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 61000 — met
- EMA (20) below Price — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price below Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Momentum (10) above 0.5 — met
- Price above 65000 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/ADX/BB/RSI/ATR/MOMENTUM Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (8 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 61000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/ADX/BB/RSI/ATR/MOMENTUM Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5892333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.178466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5892333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 61000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/ADX/BB/RSI/ATR/MOMENTUM Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5892333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.178466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5892333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Crypto crumbles as war fears kill risk appetite — short Bitcoin on the breakout failure'. Thesis: Bitcoin is often treated like a high-risk tech stock, and it's acting like one right now. The collapse of the Iran ceasefire has oil surging, which is reigniting inflation fears and pushing bond yields up. When yields rise and inflation scares hit the stock market, investors liquidate risky assets like Bitcoin to raise cash. With BTC testing the critical $61,000 level, this macro pressure makes a breakdown likely.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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