Public trading strategy
Fed pivots from rate cuts to rate hikes — short the housing and banking sectors
Created
Thesis
Banks make money by charging higher interest on loans than they pay on deposits. However, if the Fed aggressively raises rates to fight inflation, borrowing becomes too expensive, loan demand collapses, and borrowers start defaulting. The Fed officially shifting to a 'hawkish' (anti-inflation) stance is a direct headwind for bank profitability in the coming months.
Strategy approach
Build a strategy to short regional banks via KRE using the Daily timeframe. Entry: short when price breaks below the 50-day moving average on higher than average volume. Exit: buy to cover on a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, or close if the price crosses back above the 50-day moving average.
Markets and timeframes
KRE1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
KRE · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below SMA (50) — near
- OBV crossed below SMA (50) — unknown
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price crossed above SMA (50) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/OBV/ATR Breakdown Short (KRE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (KRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[1] (KRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[2] (KRE@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/OBV/ATR Breakdown Short (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/OBV/ATR Breakdown Short (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (KRE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KRE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed pivots from rate cuts to rate hikes — short the housing and banking sectors'. Thesis: Banks make money by charging higher interest on loans than they pay on deposits. However, if the Fed aggressively raises rates to fight inflation, borrowing becomes too expensive, loan demand collapses, and borrowers start defaulting. The Fed officially shifting to a 'hawkish' (anti-inflation) stance is a direct headwind for bank profitability in the coming months.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies