Public trading strategy
Hedge demand spikes as stock rally falters — long volatility
Created
Thesis
When the market's fear gauge climbs and analysts publicly warn about hidden risks in popular short-volatility ETFs, it signals a market losing confidence in calm conditions. The demand for hedges suggests large traders are bracing for a rough summer sell-off. As volatility rises, instruments that profit directly from market fear stand to gain the most, while the ETFs betting against fear face severe downside.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long VXX on D1 when the VIX closes above its 20-day simple moving average and the S&P 500 closes below its 10-day simple moving average on the same day. Exit the position when the VIX falls back below its 20-day simple moving average or after a 15-trading-day maximum hold. Apply a 12% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
UVXY · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) above 55 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.2 — unknown
- Price below SMA (10) — far
- RSI (14) above 80 — far
VXX · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: RSI/ATR Crossover Long (UVXY@4h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (UVXY@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (UVXY@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 15.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 30.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Overbought RSI Exit (UVXY@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 12.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.2
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_uvxy_long",
"name": "RSI/ATR Crossover Long (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_breakout_failed",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_signal_below_sma",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 30.0%",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_rsi_overbought",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exit (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_trailing_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 12.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.2
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_uvxy_long",
"name": "RSI/ATR Crossover Long (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_breakout_failed",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_signal_below_sma",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 30.0%",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_rsi_overbought",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exit (UVXY@4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_trailing_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 12.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Hedge demand spikes as stock rally falters — long volatility'. Thesis: When the market's fear gauge climbs and analysts publicly warn about hidden risks in popular short-volatility ETFs, it signals a market losing confidence in calm conditions. The demand for hedges suggests large traders are bracing for a rough summer sell-off. As volatility rises, instruments that profit directly from market fear stand to gain the most, while the ETFs betting against fear face severe downside.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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