Public trading strategy
Oil keeps surging on Iran collapse and Russia diesel ban — double-supply-shock p
Created
Thesis
The US declaring the Iran ceasefire 'over' and striking 80 sites immediately disrupted one of the world's most critical shipping routes, pushing oil past $75. Hours later, Russia announced a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. These aren't just isolated headlines — they represent a simultaneous supply squeeze from two of the three largest oil-producing regions. When Iran's supply is threatened AND Russian diesel is removed from the global market, major oil companies with diversified global production stand to see significant margin expansion. Chevron and Exxon are already moving premarket, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained higher oil prices. The dual supply shock creates a floor under oil that should persist even if one situation de-escalates.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long CVX and XOM on D1 when front-month crude oil futures (CL1) rise >4% in a single session AND both stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average. Exit when CL1 drops below its 20-day moving average or after a 21-day max hold. Use a 7% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CVX · 1d
4 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- Price below SMA (50) — far
XOM · 1d
4 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- Price below SMA (50) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (CVX@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (USO@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_cvx",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xom",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_cvx",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xom",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_uso",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_cvx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xom",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_cvx",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xom",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_cvx",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xom",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5321666666666665
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.064333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5321666666666665,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
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"method": {
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"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil keeps surging on Iran collapse and Russia diesel ban — double-supply-shock play on Exxon and Chevron'. Thesis: The US declaring the Iran ceasefire 'over' and striking 80 sites immediately disrupted one of the world's most critical shipping routes, pushing oil past $75. Hours later, Russia announced a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. These aren't just isolated headlines — they represent a simultaneous supply squeeze from two of the three largest oil-producing regions. When Iran's supply is threatened AND Russian diesel is removed from the global market, major oil companies with diversified global production stand to see significant margin expansion. Chevron and Exxon are already moving premarket, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained higher oil prices. The dual supply shock creates a floor under oil that should persist even if one situation de-escalates.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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