Public trading strategy
Bitcoin bloodbath deepens as ETFs bleed and Saylor flips to seller — short MSTR
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin is under simultaneous pressure from three directions. First, investors have pulled a record-breaking $4 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in June, signaling fading institutional demand. Second, Citadel Securities is warning that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to aggressively fight inflation, which historically drains money away from speculative assets like crypto. Finally, Michael Saylor's Strategy—which famously borrows money to buy Bitcoin—just announced it might sell up to $1.25 billion of its holdings. If the largest corporate buyer turns into a seller during a time of record ETF outflows, the downward pressure on Bitcoin and Bitcoin proxies like MSTR could intensify significantly.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSTR on D1 when BTCUSD closes below its 20-day low and MSTR trades below its 10-day average. Exit if BTCUSD rebounds 5% above entry. Use a 10% hard stop and a 21-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (120) above Price — far
- Price below SMA (50) — far
MSTR · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (120) above Price — met
- Price below SMA (50) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian Fade: BTC Closes Below 120-Day Low While MSTR Trades Below 50-Day SMA — Buy the Capitulation Instead of Fading It (Long MSTR@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Signal Exit: Continued Downside in MSTR After Capitulation Trigger (5% Adverse Move) (1 condition)
- Exit: Hard Stop at 10% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 21 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 120
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Contrarian Fade: BTC Closes Below 120-Day Low While MSTR Trades Below 50-Day SMA — Buy the Capitulation Instead of Fading It (Long MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Signal Exit: Continued Downside in MSTR After Capitulation Trigger (5% Adverse Move)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Hard Stop at 10%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 21 Days",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 10,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 120
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Contrarian Fade: BTC Closes Below 120-Day Low While MSTR Trades Below 50-Day SMA — Buy the Capitulation Instead of Fading It (Long MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Signal Exit: Continued Downside in MSTR After Capitulation Trigger (5% Adverse Move)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Hard Stop at 10%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 21 Days",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 10,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin bloodbath deepens as ETFs bleed and Saylor flips to seller — short MSTR'. Thesis: Bitcoin is under simultaneous pressure from three directions. First, investors have pulled a record-breaking $4 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in June, signaling fading institutional demand. Second, Citadel Securities is warning that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to aggressively fight inflation, which historically drains money away from speculative assets like crypto. Finally, Michael Saylor's Strategy—which famously borrows money to buy Bitcoin—just announced it might sell up to $1.25 billion of its holdings. If the largest corporate buyer turns into a seller during a time of record ETF outflows, the downward pressure on Bitcoin and Bitcoin proxies like MSTR could intensify significantly.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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