Public trading strategy
Bond traders are betting big on rate hikes — short long-term Treasuries as infla
Thesis
Rising inflation and a strong labor market are forcing the Fed's hand toward higher interest rates. When rates rise, bond prices fall—especially longer-duration bonds that are most sensitive to rate changes. Professional traders are already piling into this trade, and retail investors can ride the same momentum.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following short strategy for TLT on the Daily timeframe. Enter short when the 10-day EMA crosses below the 50-day EMA and the ADX(14) is above 20. Use a 4% stop loss and a 6% profit target with a maximum hold of 20 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
TLTdaily