The AI infrastructure narrative has pushed mega-cap tech stocks to record valuat
Thesis
The AI infrastructure narrative has pushed mega-cap tech stocks to record valuations, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle adding $1.9 trillion in market cap in just three days. But the foundation of that rally is cracking: the cost of debt for these massive data center buildouts is rising as Treasury auction dynamics push yields up, and a Bloomberg analysis confirms the era of cheap funding for AI is over. Meanwhile, Amazon's custom Trainium 2 chips are already being replaced after only 20 months, showing that the massive capital being deployed is at high risk of being wasted on rapidly obsolete technology. When the market realizes the ROI is shrinking while the cost of capital is rising, these crowded long positions are vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
Markets and timeframes
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
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"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_amzn",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_orcl",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_amzn",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_msft",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_orcl",
"name": "Overbought RSI/MACD/EMA Crossover Long (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_amzn",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_msft",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_orcl",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_amzn",
"name": "MACD Crosses Above Exit (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "MACD Crosses Above Exit (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_orcl",
"name": "MACD Crosses Above Exit (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_amzn",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_orcl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMZN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_amzn",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMZN@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMZN"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ORCL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_orcl",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ORCL@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ORCL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.414133333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.828266666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 1272,
"risk_percent": 2.414133333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The AI infrastructure narrative has pushed mega-cap tech stocks to record valuations, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle adding $1.9 trillion in market cap in just three days. But the foundation of that rally is cracking: the cost of debt for th'. Thesis: The AI infrastructure narrative has pushed mega-cap tech stocks to record valuations, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle adding $1.9 trillion in market cap in just three days. But the foundation of that rally is cracking: the cost of debt for these massive data center buildouts is rising as Treasury auction dynamics push yields up, and a Bloomberg analysis confirms the era of cheap funding for AI is over. Meanwhile, Amazon's custom Trainium 2 chips are already being replaced after only 20 months, showing that the massive capital being deployed is at high risk of being wasted on rapidly obsolete technology. When the market realizes the ROI is shrinking while the cost of capital is rising, these crowded long positions are vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
How CommonQuant strategies work
- Each strategy is generated from a plain-English thesis with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines, grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles.
- The strategy is expressed in an auditable DSL checked by a real compiler, and passes an adversarial AI review before it can be published.
- Every AI-generated strategy is automatically backtested over 12-month and 5-year windows (walk-forward tuned) and stress-tested across drawdowns and best/worst windows — it stays gated until that evidence run completes.
- Once live, an AI news judge re-reads fresh headlines hourly and can conclude the campaign when they confirm the strategy’s thesis-invalidation conditions, notifying the owner and followers.