Public trading strategy
The blowout jobs report pushed traders to expect another rate hike, but the Whit
Created
Thesis
The blowout jobs report pushed traders to expect another rate hike, but the White House is openly campaigning against it and Waller — one of the most influential Fed voices — has already argued for holding steady. When the market overprices a hike that the Fed's own leadership and political pressure are both steering away from, short-term bond prices tend to rally as those bets unwind after the meeting. Short-dated Treasuries are the cleanest way to play a hold decision, since they are most sensitive to the rate path over the next few meetings. The trade is a pre-meeting position that captures the repricing, not a bet on the economy.
Strategy approach
The blowout jobs report pushed traders to expect another rate hike, but the White House is openly campaigning against it and Waller — one of the most influential Fed voices — has already argued for holding steady. When the market overprices a hike that the Fed's own leadership and political pressure are both steering away from, short-term bond prices tend to rally as those bets unwind after the meeting. Short-dated Treasuries are the cleanest way to play a hold decision, since they are most sensitive to the rate path over the next few meetings. The trade is a pre-meeting position that captures the repricing, not a bet on the economy. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
SHY · 1d
1 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
- ROC (1) above 0 — near
- Price crossed above EMA (10) — near
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- RSI (14) below 70 — met
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
ZT · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Range Reclaim with Rising Closes Faded Short (SHY@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Catalyst Window Time Stop (10 bars) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[1] (SHY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Break of Consolidation High (SHY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Range Reclaim with Rising Closes Faded Short (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Catalyst Window Time Stop (10 bars)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Invalidation: Break of Consolidation High (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Range Reclaim with Rising Closes Faded Short (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Catalyst Window Time Stop (10 bars)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Invalidation: Break of Consolidation High (SHY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The blowout jobs report pushed traders to expect another rate hike, but the White House is openly campaigning against it and Waller — one of the most influential Fed voices — has already argued for holding steady. When the market overprices a hike that th'. Thesis: The blowout jobs report pushed traders to expect another rate hike, but the White House is openly campaigning against it and Waller — one of the most influential Fed voices — has already argued for holding steady. When the market overprices a hike that the Fed's own leadership and political pressure are both steering away from, short-term bond prices tend to rally as those bets unwind after the meeting. Short-dated Treasuries are the cleanest way to play a hold decision, since they are most sensitive to the rate path over the next few meetings. The trade is a pre-meeting position that captures the repricing, not a bet on the economy.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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