Public trading strategy
Oil jumps as US-Iran conflict escalates in the Strait of Hormuz — momentum play
Thesis
Direct military conflict near the Strait of Hormuz threatens roughly 20% of the world's daily oil trade. If tensions escalate further, the supply disruption risk could drive crude prices significantly higher. Oil majors like Exxon and Chevron move aggressively when crude breaks out, often amplifying the underlying commodity's percentage gains.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy that enters long XOM and CVX on D1 when front-month WTI crude oil (CL1) makes a new 20-day high. Exit on a 10% trailing stop or after a 21-day max hold, whichever comes first.