Record Bitcoin ETF bleeding meets failed relief rally — short crypto's dead cat
Thesis
Investors pulled a record $4 billion from Bitcoin funds in June, signaling extreme panic. This massive exodus usually feeds on itself, forcing prices down further. Even worse for crypto bulls, Bitcoin failed to bounce when stock market futures rose on news of Iran peace talks. When an asset ignores good news and keeps sliding, it means underlying selling pressure is massive. Strategists are now warning of a drop all the way down to $40,000, making the risk of further losses very real.
Strategy approach
Build a short-bias strategy on BTC-USD or BITO entering short when the 20-day moving average crosses below the 50-day moving average and weekly outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs exceed $500 million (using IBIT and FBTC outflows as a proxy). Exit if the daily price closes above the 20-day moving average for 3 consecutive days, or after a 28-day max hold.