Public trading strategy
Blackstone is locking up investor money — short the private equity panic
Created
Thesis
When a major investment firm like Blackstone limits withdrawals, it means they either don't have enough cash on hand or they are bracing for a run on the bank. This spooks investors across the entire private equity and credit sector, leading to a loss of confidence. Rival firms with similar business models are likely to see their stock prices dragged down as investors re-evaluate the risks. This loss of confidence can trigger a sustained downtrend for the sector.
Strategy approach
Build a short-biased mean reversion strategy on alternative asset managers (BX, APO, ARES) on the daily timeframe. Short the stock when it closes below its 10-day EMA and the 10-day EMA crosses below the 50-day EMA. Cover the position if the stock has a 2-standard deviation move up, or take profit after a 10% decline.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
APO · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (10) crossed below EMA (50) — near
- Price below EMA (10) — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
ARES · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (10) crossed below EMA (50) — near
- Price below EMA (10) — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
BX · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (10) crossed below EMA (50) — near
- Price below EMA (10) — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA Crossover Long (BX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: EMA Crossover Long (APO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: EMA Crossover Long (ARES@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bx",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_apo",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ares",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ARES"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_bx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_apo",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ares",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_bx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BX@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_apo",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (APO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ares",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_bx",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (BX@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_apo",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (APO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ares",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bx",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_apo",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ares",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ARES"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_bx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_apo",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ares",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_bx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BX@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_apo",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (APO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ares",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_bx",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (BX@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_apo",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (APO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ares",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ARES"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Blackstone is locking up investor money — short the private equity panic'. Thesis: When a major investment firm like Blackstone limits withdrawals, it means they either don't have enough cash on hand or they are bracing for a run on the bank. This spooks investors across the entire private equity and credit sector, leading to a loss of confidence. Rival firms with similar business models are likely to see their stock prices dragged down as investors re-evaluate the risks. This loss of confidence can trigger a sustained downtrend for the sector.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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