Public trading strategy
Weak jobs data forces Fed's hand as institutions buy the crypto dip — momentum p
Created
Thesis
Crypto markets are showing classic signs of bottoming: extreme fear is being met with heavy institutional buying, forcing short-sellers to cover at a loss. The June jobs report drastically missed expectations, adding only 57,000 positions. A weak labor market pressures the Fed to cut interest rates; when rates fall, investors flock to scarce assets. This combination of forced short-covering, renewed ETF demand, and a sudden macroeconomic push toward lower rates creates a strong tailwind for crypto.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following long strategy for ETH-USD on the D1 timeframe. Entry condition: price closes above the 20-day simple moving average AND the previous day's candle closed in the top quartile of its 14-day range (momentum confirmation). Exit condition: price closes below the 20-day SMA or a fixed 12% stop loss from the entry price is hit. Hold for a maximum of 30 days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- Donchian (14) below Price — met
- ROC (12) above 2 — far
- SMA (20) above SMA (50) — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
ETH · 1d
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- Donchian (14) below Price — met
- ROC (12) above 2 — far
- SMA (20) above SMA (50) — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (ETH@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ETH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (ETH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (ETH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 30 bars (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_eth",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Time Stop at 30 bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 12,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Contrarian Fade of Confirmed Macro-Momentum Long Setup (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_eth",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Time Stop at 30 bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 12,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs data forces Fed's hand as institutions buy the crypto dip — momentum play on Ethereum'. Thesis: Crypto markets are showing classic signs of bottoming: extreme fear is being met with heavy institutional buying, forcing short-sellers to cover at a loss. The June jobs report drastically missed expectations, adding only 57,000 positions. A weak labor market pressures the Fed to cut interest rates; when rates fall, investors flock to scarce assets. This combination of forced short-covering, renewed ETF demand, and a sudden macroeconomic push toward lower rates creates a strong tailwind for crypto.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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