Public trading strategy
With oil back above $84 amid the Iran deadlock, the inflation threat is far from
Created
Thesis
With oil back above $84 amid the Iran deadlock, the inflation threat is far from over. Central banks are signaling they might need to hike rates even higher, with Australia's central bank explicitly warning further hikes are 'quite possible' and analysts doubting Japan's upcoming hike will be enough to stabilize the yen. This combination of sticky energy inflation and aggressive central bank posturing is toxic for long-dated government bonds, which fall when yields rise. Reuters reporting 'long bond bother' confirms the institutional pain, making a short bet on long-term Treasury bonds a high-probability trade.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
IEF · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- OBV crossed below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
TLT · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- OBV crossed below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (TLT@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (IEF@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (IEF@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (IEF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IEF@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ief",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ief",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ief",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.545
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.09
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_tlt",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_ief",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.545,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ief",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ief",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ief",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Support[1] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.545
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.09
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_tlt",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_ief",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.545,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'With oil back above $84 amid the Iran deadlock, the inflation threat is far from over. Central banks are signaling they might need to hike rates even higher, with Australia's central bank explicitly warning further hikes are 'quite possible' and analysts '. Thesis: With oil back above $84 amid the Iran deadlock, the inflation threat is far from over. Central banks are signaling they might need to hike rates even higher, with Australia's central bank explicitly warning further hikes are 'quite possible' and analysts doubting Japan's upcoming hike will be enough to stabilize the yen. This combination of sticky energy inflation and aggressive central bank posturing is toxic for long-dated government bonds, which fall when yields rise. Reuters reporting 'long bond bother' confirms the institutional pain, making a short bet on long-term Treasury bonds a high-probability trade.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies